 Ecocycles: Interacting impacts of land use and climate changes on ecosystem processes: from cyclic herbivores to predators of conservation concern
Coordinator: Dr. Xavier Lambin
Link to presentation
Presentation of the project
In recent years, evidence has emerged that dramatic changes in ecosystem processes and functioning are taking place across Europe under the joint impact of climate change and human-induced shift in land use. One of the most spectacular change concerns the populations of keystone herbivore species such as voles and moths with cyclical dynamics that took place nearly simultaneously in much of Europe in the 1990s. Changes in small herbivore dynamics have the potential to lead to ecosystem re-organisation and therefore represent a challenge for the conservation of biodiversity, for which clear management and policy have to be addressed quickly. Indeed several European species of high conservation concern, as well as many birds of prey, are intimately linked to cyclically fluctuating prey.
This project encompasses ecosystems as diverse as Lapland tundra, Fennoscandian taiga forest, UK upland grassland, agricultural plains of France, and agro-steppe in Spain, where small rodents are widely seen as key-stone species for a diverse guild of predators, including species of high conservation concern such as Arctic fox, hen and Montagu’s harrier or red kite. Interestingly, the dynamics of voles or lemmings have lost their large amplitude and regular cycles in northern areas during the last decades (Norway, UK, France), while the first outbreaks were recently recorded in the south (Spain). The impact of the rodent cycle is likely to be transmitted in the food web of these ecosystems by indirect interactions through, for instance, prey-switching by facultative generalist predators to alternative prey and might lead to a profound re-assembly of predator, parasite and plant communities. Trophic cascades might indeed propagate and amplify between trophic levels subtle changes in primary producer phenology in response to climate change. Understanding how ecosystem processes are affected by the cascading effects of changing small herbivore dynamics is a knowledge gap with tremendous conservation implications.
Acquiring a better knowledge of these complex interactions appears to be essential for designing effective conservation initiatives for top predators and the communities to which they belong. This European collaborative project has been designed around five nested work packages progress from fundamental to decidedly applied issues.
First, we will test the following nested set of four hypotheses:
1. that there is currently a geographically extensive syndrome of environmentally-driven (climate and land use), season-specific, changes in small herbivore dynamics across widely different eco-regions in Europe;
2. that these changes have disproportionate (non-linear) impacts on demographic parameters of predators that exploit cyclically fluctuating herbivore;
3. that these demographic changes, in turn, impact directly on population viability of predators;
4. and indirectly influence other species in the food web through a cascading effect. In the dissemination of our results we will exploit a variety of media, designed for particular target audiences, including conservation professionals, interest groups, the scientific community, and the wider public.
The scientific community will be targeted using peer reviewed articles and presentations at scientific meetings. Towards the end of the project we will hold a scientific meeting focusing on environmental change and ecosystem processes.
Finally, the wider public will be addressed through timed press releases of project results that are designed to attract media attention to topical issues. We will make heavy use of the internet and establish a website from the beginning of the project that will serve as a source of all information materials for all target audiences.
Policy relevance of the project
We will systematically explore the conservation corollaries of the hypotheses tested that pertain to the impacts of climate and land-use changes on biodiversity and to the conservation management of exploited and pristine ecosystems in the face of global change. Together with policy makers and stakeholders, we will explore the ecosystem-level implications of our findings, alternative management practices and policy implications.
One dedicated work package will develop a constructive engagement between researchers, stakeholders and policy makers to disseminate the results widely, and improve the appropriate use of scientific knowledge and efficiency of existing policies.
We shall establish a National Consultation Forum (NCF) in each country comprising the conservation professionals, researchers, key stakeholders, and policymakers at local and national levels, including Agricultural, Environmental or Forestry administrative authorities, hunters associations, managers of natural reserve, local NGOs and farming organisations. They will be involved in the design, implementation and conclusion of our research as it impinges on management issues at the national level. At the final meetings, we will review the evidence base from our work and use the same techniques to re-examine attitudes to alternative forms of management and policy of each system. This will show how the co-development of an evidence base affects attitudes towards suitable management and policy.
There are likely to be important national differences in how rapidly policy can be influenced by research findings and research direction can respond to policy initiatives. We will use semi-structured questionnaires at our NCF to define the pathways between science and policy and explore these national differences.
The final products of the project will include best practice guidelines for each study system and a review of findings and their policy implications, agreed by the respective fora.
Finally, this project will support the European-wide development of capacity for ecosystem-scale approaches to conservation and policy. |
